What is the vote share of which community in UP?
OBC– 42%
Yadav– 11%
Kurmi- 5%
Kori-Maurya-Kushwaha-Saini– 4%
Jat– 2%
Other O.B.C– 16%
How BJP dominated in OBC votebank?
In 2014, 2019 Lok Sabha Elections and 2017, 2022 UP Assembly Elections, BJP sabotaged the OBC votebank. In this he also got considerable success. Many SP leaders and supporters joined the BJP camp. This time BJP wants to increase its reach with OBC vote bank. To increase its influence in the OBC vote bank, BJP is going to organize programs like ‘OBC Mahakumbh’ in UP. It aims to bring together non-Yadav backward caste people. Om Prakash Rajbhar was brought into NDA to fulfill this purpose. Sanjay Nishad, Jayant Chaudhary and Anupriya Patel are such examples. He has the responsibility to increase the OBC vote bank for the NDA.
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How big is the challenge for BJP to retain OBC votes?
Last election statistics show that BJP got bumper votes from OBCs. Retaining the OBC votes is a big challenge for the BJP in this Lok Sabha election. In 2014, SP and BSP fought separate elections. Then if the Yadav votes are excluded, the difference between the BJP and the SP among the rest of the OBC castes is 35 to 70 percent. Even in 2019 when SP-BSP were together, the difference was 50 to 84 percent. It will not be easy for opponents to overcome this gap.
Akhilesh Yadav is busy wooing the OBC voters
The challenge for the SP is to win back the OBC voters in the Lok Sabha elections. The party’s strategy for this is also clear. SP president Akhilesh Yadav has also raised the slogan of Backward, Dalit and Minority (PDA). The SP is particularly emphasizing on caste census. While BJP is rejecting it.
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Mayawati is also not lagging behind in wooing the OBC community.
BSP supremo Mayawati is also not behind in wooing the OBC voters of UP. In 2007, when his party formed the government in UP with an absolute majority, he got a good share of votes. BSP and SP contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections together. BSP got its benefit. Its OBC vote bank share increased. Now Mayawati has backed the demand for a caste census to tap the OBC vote bank in the 2024 elections. Not only this, he has also demanded OBC quota in the Women’s Reservation Bill, so that the message goes out to the people that only the BSP cares about the OBC community in UP.
What do the experts say?
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari says, “It is not difficult for the BJP to retain the OBC vote bank. Because the BJP has divided the OBC vote bank in UP into two. First – Yadav (who make up about 10% of the population). Second is non-Yadav. Om Prakash Nishad Thousands of sub-castes have managed to assert their dominance, definitely giving non-Yadav OBCs a chance but it is clear that it will not be easy for the SP or any other party to break the BJP’s dominance.
Senior journalist Rashid Kidwai says, “It is very difficult for the opposition to break the BJP’s dominance or reduce the OBC vote gap. The opposition has not even had enough time to work hard on the ground. In the last five years, many Congress and SP have gone to the NDA, perhaps because of this.” The whole political math about the same caste census is complicated.
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Let us tell you that Congress has strongly raised the issue of caste enumeration in the Bharat alliance of opposition parties. But it is believed that the BJP fears such a census could upset its upper caste voters. Apart from this, the BJP’s traditional Hindu vote bank may be broken.