Lok Sabha Election 2024: In the current Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape of the national capital Delhi has changed. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which first contested against the Congress in the 2013 assembly elections, has now joined hands with the same Congress to challenge the BJP in the 2024 elections. If the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party alliance succeeds in the current Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, it is likely to have a profound impact on the future of the country’s politics. Assembly elections are going to be held in Delhi eight months after the Lok Sabha elections. If the ‘friendship’ between AAP and Congress succeeds, the tone of battle in the assembly elections may be different.
Congress and BJP dominate the politics of capital Delhi. Aam Aadmi Party, born in 2012 after Anna Hazare’s agitation against corruption in 2011, entered electoral politics in 2013 and with it the struggle between BJP and Congress in Delhi politics turned into a triangular contest. In the 2013 assembly elections, both the BJP and the Congress went all out against the ruling Congress Sheila Dikshit government. Out of total 70 seats in the election, BJP got 31 seats and Aam Aadmi Party got 28 seats. The Congress was badly defeated and reduced to eight seats. In this election, BJP’s vote share was 33.1 percent and Aam Aadmi Party’s vote share was 29.5 percent. Congress’s vote share was 24.6 percent. However, after the results, the Aam Aadmi Party formed the government along with the Congress due to its minority and Arvind Kejriwal became the Chief Minister. The first AAP government was short-lived and fell in just 49 days when Kejriwal resigned after failing to introduce the Jan Lokpal Bill in the Assembly. Polling has now ended in Delhi and as per the figures released by the Election Commission, 53.7 percent voting has been done till 5 pm.
However, it is not as if no other party has intervened in Delhi, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati in 2007 won two seats in the 2008 assembly elections after winning several wards in the Delhi Municipal Corporation elections. It is a different matter that it could not become a challenge for Congress and BJP. The people of Delhi saw and supported the Aam Aadmi Party as a far-reaching alternative to the BJP and the Congress. Since 2013, be it Lok Sabha elections, Assembly elections or Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections, politics here has always been tripartite.
Bilateral rather than triangular competition
The battle has now become bipolar with the opposition uniting under the banner of India Alliance to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party in the current Lok Sabha elections. With this a new chapter of change is being added in Indian politics. The purpose of this unity of opposition is to prevent division of votes against BJP. Voters who do not want to vote for BJP are choosing one of the parties contesting against BJP. BJP is getting the benefit of this distribution of votes. Both ‘AAP’ and Congress are part of Bharat Gatbandhan and that is why both are fighting together against BJP in Delhi. Now the triangular conflict has turned into a direct fight between the BJP and the Bharat Alliance.
Out of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, Aam Aadmi Party candidates have contested four seats namely New Delhi, East Delhi, South Delhi and West Delhi. Congress is contesting from Chandni Chowk, North East Delhi and North West Delhi seats.
In this election, Aam Aadmi Party and other parties including Congress are sending a clear message to the voters that their alliance is not for the victory of any party in the election but to save democracy and the constitution.
Change in vote sharing math
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, the BJP got a total of 56.7 percent votes. Congress got 22.6 percent votes and AAP got only 18.2 percent votes. While in the previous 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the calculation of vote share was slightly different. Then BJP contested the first election by presenting Narendra Modi as the face of the Prime Minister. Then BJP got 46.4 percent votes in Delhi. Aam Aadmi Party got 33.1 percent and Congress 15.2 percent votes. This time Aam Aadmi Party and Congress are confident that their votes will not be divided among themselves. Candidates of both the parties will be given a joint vote.
The strong point of Bharat Gathbandhan this time is that there is no effective wave in favor of BJP this time and on the other side there is some anti-incumbency wave. In this case, even a fractional change in vote share can affect the results.
Amidst resentment in both parties, a coalition was found.
Congress and AAP also considered an alliance during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but it could not be implemented. As both the parties are contesting against each other in municipal corporation and assembly elections and both have the same voter base, there have been voices from within against unity between the two. Even before this election, there was a lot of opposition regarding the decision of this alliance in both the parties, especially within the Congress. Some leaders also left the party in protest against the alliance’s decision.
Alliance in Delhi, gap in Punjab
In the Lok Sabha elections, Aam Aadmi Party is contesting on four seats in Delhi, two seats in Assam, two seats in Gujarat, all 13 seats in Punjab and one seat in Haryana. Apart from Punjab, the party has agreed on seats with the Congress in other states including Delhi. Aam Aadmi Party is contesting in a total of 22 seats and Congress in a little over 300 seats across the country.
The tide of politics kept changing due to shifting bases
In a democratic system, the penetration of political parties among the people keeps increasing and decreasing. Before 1975, Congress was at the center of Indian politics. The Congress government led by Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency on 25 June 1975. This decision of the government led him to defeat. In the 1977 elections, the Congress faced a heavy defeat. Then the Janata Party formed a government under the leadership of Morarji Desai in alliance with other parties. After this, the Congress returned in 1980. In 1989 there was another major political change and the Janata Dal government was formed. In 1991, the people once again handed over the reins of the country to the Congress. BJP came to power in 1996 followed by Congress from 2004 to 2014. Since then, the BJP-led NDA government has been in power for 10 consecutive years.
Voters who bring about change by adopting an alternative
In democracies, the positive and negative effects of parties in power always influence election outcomes. On the one hand, traditional votes are coming to the accounts of parties, on the other hand, there are voters who change their attitude and adopt alternatives. These voters are the main cause of change.
A juxtaposition of new and old political beliefs
If the Aam Aadmi Party-Congress alliance succeeds in defeating the BJP in the current Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, the political equations formed out of it could take the future of politics not only in Delhi but in the country in a new direction. It may be noted that Congress is the oldest party in the country and Aam Aadmi Party is only 11 years old. Congress is the party that has been in power for the longest time in the country, while AAP is the party that has succeeded in winning power in two states namely Delhi and Punjab. The people of the country inherited the power of the Congress after independence, while the Aam Aadmi Party, born out of the movement, established itself as one of the mainstream political parties of the country within a decade. In the parliamentary history of India, Congress has received support from all corners of the country. The Aam Aadmi Party, considered a regional party in Delhi, quickly gained foothold in other states and achieved national party status in 2023. That is, in a way, it is this combination of parties with two types of political beliefs, old and new, which can create a new chemistry in the country’s politics.
Success can open new doors
If the alliance of Congress and Aam Aadmi Party manages to win all the seven seats in Delhi, it is possible that this alliance will continue in the next assembly elections as well and these two parties will fight the next Delhi elections together. Although the chances are slim, this political juggling act is likely to continue if the India Alliance manages to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha elections.
Failure will raise questions
On the other hand, if the AAP-Congress alliance fails in the current Delhi elections, then naturally questions will be raised about its future. If the Congress succeeds in all three of its seats and you fail, or if the Congress fails and you succeed, the alliance’s unity will also be affected. Its first impact will be seen in the upcoming Delhi assembly elections. For now let’s see… who he likes and who he rejects…
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