Compared to Lok Sabha Election 2019, BJP suffered a huge loss of 63 seats in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. The party’s performance was dismal in several important states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, but Madhya Pradesh was the only major state where the BJP not only increased its number of seats but created history by winning all 29 seats.
These results are also relevant because the BJP’s performance in the Hindi belt too has not been up to expectations. The party got 49 seats less than in 2019. In such a situation, Madhya Pradesh results are encouraging for BJP and this performance has once again proved that Madhya Pradesh is its new stronghold after Gujarat.
But it is to be noted that Madhya Pradesh is slightly different from other states of the Hindi belt. Political scientist Van Wilcox, famous for his research on South-Asian politics, explained the diversity of Madhya Pradesh by calling it a ‘microcosm of India’.
At the time of the split in the year 2000, it was basically seen as a group of 4 divisions. First – the area of central India in the mid-west, second – the Vindhya region adjoining Uttar Pradesh, third – Mahakaushal in the south, and fourth and last – Chhattisgarh, which later became the new state. That is, it can be broadly said that Madhya Pradesh is a collection of remnants of its neighboring states, held together without any strong connection.
In such a scenario, maintaining an outstanding record of post-election success in such a state is a huge achievement for the BJP or any party.
Saffron was also waved in Madhya Pradesh in the assembly elections held in December last year. BJP proved all kinds of political pundits wrong and won a bumper victory. The party won 163 of the state’s 230 assembly seats and ensured a 20-year rule for the next five years. In this period of 20 years, the BJP was out of power for only 15 months, while the Congress formed the government with the support of other parties and independent MLAs after a close contest in the 2018 assembly elections.
However, BJP’s 109 seats were just 5 less than Congress’ 114 seats. In such a situation this defeat is no more than an exception. Something similar was witnessed in Gujarat in 2017, when the Congress stunned the BJP by coming very close to victory in that impregnable fortress.
But it is to be noted here that even in this defeat in Madhya Pradesh BJP managed to get more vote percentage than Congress. In fact, had it not been for the shooting of farmers in Mandsaur and the furor generated by the Supreme Court’s move to reverse the decision to dilute the SC-ST Act a few months before the elections, even a temporary halt to the party’s Vijay Rath run in the state might have been impossible. .
However, this dominance of the BJP has not always been there. Congress ruled almost continuously from the formation of the state in 1956 till 2003. For decades, the Congress maintained its political dominance by forming ‘alliances’ with the former royal elite and the traditional landowning castes.
The Bharatiya Jana Sangh continued to strengthen its roots during this period. In the 1962 assembly elections itself, the Jana Sangh became the main opposition party by winning 41 seats. After the breakup of the Janata Party and the formation of the BJP in 1980, this performance continued to improve.
Finally, the BJP managed to capture power in the year 1990, when it won 220 seats with 39 percent of the votes. However, this government could last only two years. But this was the time when the vote gap between the two camps closed. But still the Congress remained in power for the next 10 years.
Experts consider this a political ploy by then Chief Minister Digvijay Singh. According to political researcher Asim Ali, “Digvijay Singh brought together the social elite and Dalit-tribals to form a strong strategic alliance that bypassed the OBC community… This was an effective exercise, as Dalits (14%) and tribals (14%) ) 21%) together constitute more than one-third of the total population…”
Meanwhile, Madhya Pradesh remained at least untouched by the political upheaval caused by the OBC reservation implemented on the recommendations of the Mandal Commission in the country. Although 48 percent of the state’s population is OBCs, the reason for the subdued reaction is that Madhya Pradesh, like other Hindi states, does not have a large population of major agricultural castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, Jats. No OBC caste is more than 5 percent of the total population. It is not easy to unite such a dispersed population on any issue.
But in the 2003 elections, the OBC community gave organized support to the BJP. The BJP got 50 percent of the votes from the OBC community and the party came to power by winning 173 seats. It was from here that BJP started OBC politics in the state. Despite having to change the chief minister twice in the first term itself, the BJP ensured that all three faces – Uma Bharti, Babulal Gaur and Shivraj Singh Chauhan – were from OBC backgrounds. New Chief Minister Mohan Yadav is also an OBC leader.
The year 2003 proved to be a landmark for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. The party has never looked back in the state since then, and the BJP has been virtually invincible in Madhya Pradesh in the 2008, 2013, 2018 and 2023 assembly elections.
If anyone deserves the most credit for this golden journey of electoral success, it is veteran party leader and 4-time former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Shivraj succeeded to a large extent in organizing the OBCs as a broad electoral alliance of farmers during his rule. This election was clever, as more than half of Madhya Pradesh’s population depends on agriculture.
During his tenure, Shivraj took many impressive measures related to agriculture, which had a positive impact on farmers. According to agricultural economist Ashok Gulati in his research paper published in 2017, the Shivraj regime’s policy interventions – increasing irrigated area, continuous power supply for groundwater irrigation, better procurement systems and investment in rural roads – have significantly improved agricultural production. The state was the reason why between 2007-15, the average agricultural growth rate in the state was 11.9 percent, while the national average was only 4.3 percent during the same period.
According to a report in the English newspaper ‘Indian Express’, under Shivraj, Madhya Pradesh emerged as the second largest producer of wheat in the country. Besides, the state is the leader in the production of soybean, chickpea, tomato, garlic, ginger, coriander and fenugreek and second in the production of onion, mustard and maize. (Now Shivraj is responsible for the welfare of the farmers of the entire country)
During this period, in almost every Lok Sabha election, Madhya Pradesh has repaid the BJP by giving it plenty of seats. Even when the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government failed to make a comeback in 2004, the BJP won 25 out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh.
In 2009, when the people elected the UPA government for a second consecutive term, the BJP won 16 seats in Madhya Pradesh against the Congress’ 12. After this, the performance steadily improved in 2014, 2019 and 2024 with the party winning 27, 28 and 29 seats respectively. In 2014 and 2019, BJP’s vote percentage remained above 50%, in 2024 this figure will reach around 60%.
On the other hand, the main opposition Congress in the state has been weakened due to continuous defeats. Senior journalist Brajesh Rajput, in his book ‘Chunav Hai Paramita Ka’, written on the 2018 assembly elections, writes, “The last 15 years have been a story of devastation for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh… After losing power in 2003, a well-organized Congress organization gradually disappeared. and became ineffective…”
There is talk that in the just concluded 2024 elections, the oldest party didn’t even put its strength in except for a few seats. Even before the Lok Sabha elections, there was a lot of speculation about the party’s biggest leader and former chief minister Kamal Nath and his son Nakul Nath joining the BJP. Earlier, in the year 2020, senior Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia joined the BJP along with 22 MLAs from his group, which led to the fall of a barely 15-month-old Congress government in the state.
But on the contrary it is not that the organization of BJP has been completely strong and effective. However, the difference becomes larger when you include the union cadre as well. Commenting on the BJP’s victory in the 2003 assembly elections, political researcher and professor at the University of London James Manor wrote that RSS cadres participated enthusiastically in the elections, which was crucial to the victory. He also wrote that in his 31 years of covering assembly elections, he had never seen such an organized campaign before. That is, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has been an effective partner of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh for a long time.
The hope of strengthening its hold and the geographical presence of the state has lured the BJP’s ideological fathers with new opportunities. Considering the importance and strategic vision of the Hindi belt, the Sangh is in the process of shifting its Nagpur headquarters to Madhya Pradesh. In 2020, Sangh sources told the English daily ‘Times of India’, “…being at the center of the country, the Madhya Bharat region is important in terms of planning, review and political mobilization of the Sangh-affiliated people.”
Importantly, the Malwa region where this new headquarters is being built is the most important in Madhya Pradesh in terms of seats.
It is also interesting that Sangh has an old history associated with Madhya Pradesh. In the year 1943, Sarsangchalak Madhavrao Golwalkar wanted to hold a meeting in Indore, but British government policy prohibited any outsider from organizing such events. Then a person got the land of his arena in his name. Since then Malwa’s Archana Office organizes the activities of the Sangh.
That is, both history and the present point to the saffron political future of Madhya Pradesh.
(Atul Ranjan works in NDTV India)
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author.