Monsoon, which arrived in Kerala two days earlier and reached the northeast 6 days earlier than its normal date, has almost stalled since June 12. Due to which sowing of kharif crops is delayed. It has moved slowly in the first 14 days, covering about 40% of the area. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) still believes that the country is likely to receive good rainfall during July-September. The department has downgraded the June rainfall forecast for the entire country to ‘below normal’ from ‘normal’ due to the current stagnation in monsoon movement.
Earlier data showed that in several years since 1954, 22 La Niña summer monsoons were either ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’. Only in 1974 and 2000 was it below normal. The IMD has predicted ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall across the country this year.
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The current hiatus is relatively long
Climatologist and former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences Madhavan Rajevan said, “Monsoon stagnation is very common during the monsoon season, but the current hiatus is relatively long.
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“It is expected during the last week of June. Anyway, there will be less rain in June, but we should not worry. We will have a normal monsoon,” said Rajiv.
Effect of delay in monsoon on agriculture
Delay in monsoon will affect agriculture. Because, it will delay the sowing of kharif crops like paddy. This will reduce the gap between harvesting of Kharif crop and sowing of next (Ravi) crop. A situation that has led to more incidents of stubble burning in northwest India as farmers rush to prepare land for sowing wheat and mustard.
…so what should farmers do?
“We will advise farmers to adopt the direct seeded rice method to save time. Farmers continue to follow the traditional method of preparing nurseries in advance and transplanting which takes a lot of time,” said an agriculture ministry official.