In the fourth phase, voting will be held on 25 seats of Andhra Pradesh, 17 of Telangana, 13 of Uttar Pradesh, 11 of Maharashtra, 8 of West Bengal, 8 of Madhya Pradesh, 5 of Bihar, 4 of Jharkhand, 4 of Odisha and Srinagar of Jammu. And voting took place in Kashmir. West Bengal had the highest voter turnout of 76.02%. Jammu and Kashmir recorded the lowest voter turnout of 36.7%. 77.8% polling was recorded in Bengal’s Bolpur seat. While Srinagar seat of Jammu and Kashmir had the lowest voter turnout of 35.8%. However, in real terms, voting in Jammu and Kashmir has improved a lot.
Fourth round voting percentage in the last 3 Lok Sabha elections
2014 Lok Sabha Elections- 69.1%
2019 Lok Sabha Elections- 69.1%
2024 Lok Sabha Elections – 62.9%
What is the difference in 2024 compared to 2019?
In 2019, Andhra Pradesh had 80.4% voter turnout. In 2024, there was 68.1% voting. It means that the polling has decreased by 12.3%. In 2019, the 5 seats of Bihar Darbhanga, Ujiyapur, Samastipur, Begusarai and Munger saw 59.3% voting. But this time 55.9% polling has been done in these seats. Meaning the voting percentage has decreased by 3.4%, the Srinagar seat recorded 14.4% voter turnout in the 2019 elections, which has increased by 22.3% to 36.7% this time. In the last election, 66.9% voter turnout was recorded in 4 seats of Jharkhand. In the 2024 elections, the polling on these seats was 63.4%. Of the 11 constituencies in Maharashtra where voting was held in the fourth phase, 61.6% voting was recorded in 2019. But this time 52.8% polling has been done in these seats.
68.7% voting took place in 9 seats of Madhya Pradesh. 75.7% polling in these seats in the last election. In the last election, 4 seats of Odisha had 74.3% voting. This time 63.9% votes have been cast on these seats. In 2019, there was a 62.7% voter turnout across all 17 seats in Telangana. This time 61.4% voting has been done. Voting was held in 13 seats of UP in the fourth phase. In 2019, the turnout in these seats was 58.9%. This time 57.9% polling has been recorded in these seats. While in 2019, 82.9% voting was recorded in 8 seats of West Bengal. This time the polling in these seats is 6.9% less.
8 things about the 4 phases of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which you might not know?
What do polling increases and decreases mean?
After 4 phases of voting in the Lok Sabha elections so far, one question has been in discussion. Who gets hurt by low turnout and which party benefits from high turnout? NDTV learned from experts what the increase and decrease in polling could mean.
Voter turnout does not have a strong correlation with election results.
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari says, “The provisional turnout so far in the fourth phase is also 2 or 3 percent lower than in the fourth phase of the last election. But voter turnout has no significant correlation with the election results. If we talk about the 1957 to 2019 elections, the turnout is 10 times has increased and the government has returned 6 times i.e. polling has increased, we have not seen any significant trend state wise.
Explainer: What is the political meaning of ‘Hindu-Muslim’ population report amid Lok Sabha elections? Find out from the experts
Did the BJP improve its performance in the fourth phase?
Responding to this question, senior journalist Ram Kripal Singh says, “If we talk about body language, BJP people no longer speak beyond 400. After PM Modi’s rally in Patna, there has been some change in the ruling party. There is a sense of frustration. All this. The rally itself had a big message, “Bihar is a state where the transformation of democracy begins. Of course, the BJP’s performance is expected to improve after the fourth phase of polling.”
Did the strike rate improve or deteriorate in 2019?
In response, political analyst Aditi Phadnis says, “PM Modi himself hinted at an improvement in the BJP’s strike rate. PM Modi said in an interview that BJP’s results in Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh would be unexpected.” Will the magic of Jagan Mohan Reddy or Modi-Naidu duo work in Andhra Pradesh? Responding to this, Aditi Phadnis says, “Jagan Mohan Reddy has done good work in the state. But at the grassroots level, I think Jagan Mohan’s work has not reached all the people. BJP is very expert in this work. Overall Jagan Mohan Reddy is very expert. .BJP can take advantage of it by failing to deliver the schemes to the last person.
Analysis: How important is OBC vote bank to BJP’s Mission-80? Will the SP-Congress strategy spoil the work?
What does the fourth phase polls in UP indicate?
Voting was held in 13 seats in the fourth phase in UP. 58.9% polling was done till 6 pm. Kheri recorded the highest voter turnout of 64.73 percent. Kanpur had the lowest voter turnout of 53.06 percent. In 2019, BJP got 53.4% votes in these 19 seats. BSP+SP got 35.2% votes. Congress got 8.3% and others 3.2% votes. In such a situation BJP is expecting a good vote percentage this time too.
If you get bail, is it a win? How much will Kejriwal’s release in the election benefit the Bharat Alliance?