Bengaluru: All is not well in Karnataka politics these days. Perhaps this is seen from the statements of the leaders. There are reports of a split in the Congress on the lines of Maharashtra due to internal factionalism in the Congress. The question is, can there be a change of power in Karnataka on the lines of Maharashtra? Ramesh Jarkiholi’s claim is being taken seriously as in 2019, Ramesh Jarkiholi played a key role in the campaign in which 17 Congress and JDS MLAs resigned and joined the BJP through Operation Kamal.
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Karnataka Legislative Assembly has 225 members. (A Nominated-Anglo-Indian) means 113 MLAs are required to form a government. Congress has 135 MLAs. BJP has 66 MLAs, JDS 19 MLAs, 2 Independent MLAs and 2 others.
In this way a new equation can be formed
There is an alliance between BJP and JDS for the Lok Sabha elections. Talks are going on for seat sharing. If the 66 BJP MLAs and 19 JDS MLAs want to form the government together, the alliance will need 28 more MLAs to reach the magic figure of 113. That means 28 MLAs will have to break this alliance with Congress. Congress has 135 MLAs. In such a scenario, the membership of 28 MLAs would be terminated under the Anti-Defection Act, then they would have to face elections and the path to victory in the re-election would not be easy for all 28 MLAs.
Another challenge is Rs. 76 crores disproportionate assets case, which is being investigated by the CBI. The Karnataka High Court has asked the CBI to complete the investigation within 3 months and seek a report. The Enforcement Directorate also arrested him in 2019 in this case. He is currently on bail.
DK Sivakumar knows that if found guilty, he will not be able to contest elections for 6 years after serving his sentence. In such a situation the support of the party will be useful to him in future. So, in his latest statement, DK Sivakumar said that there is unnecessary talk about power sharing, which is not needed.
I will remain the Chief Minister – Siddaramaiah
Right from the day Siddaramaiah took oath as the Chief Minister after the assembly elections held in 2023, it is being said that Siddaramaiah will be the Chief Minister for the first two and a half years and DK Shivakumar for the next two and a half years. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s statement came before DK Shivakumar’s statement, he claimed that the government will complete its 5-year tenure and I will remain the Chief Minister. Talks of power sharing are baseless.
The OBC Commission will submit the cast census report to the Siddaramaiah government later this month. According to the report Lingayat and Vokkaliga population is less. That means the dominance of these castes will end. Scheduled caste and Muslim population is more than these two castes. DK Shivakumar is a Vokkaliga and is counted as a strong Vokkaliga leader of the party. But when his caste lags behind in terms of votes, it will also affect DK Shivakumar’s political future.
OBC population in the state decreased!
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah Kurba means OBC. According to this report, the percentage of their caste has also declined, from 11 percent of the population earlier, to around 7 percent. Currently Siddaramaiah does not want to make the cast census report public. It will be released only after the Lok Sabha elections. Overall, there is some form of power struggle going on between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, leading to speculations of power change in the state.
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